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The NGMR Top-5-Hot vs. Top-5-Not: Market Research Soothsaying

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I'm enamored by, no...obsessed with knowing where the market research industry is headed.  A number of years ago, a bright IT guy in an organization I was working for, approached our fearless leader and said, "I think we could do survey research using the internet and e-mail addresses."  He was told to go back to his desk, that the internet and e-mail were a fad, a wave, something that would never stick.  A few years later the access panel was born.  Several years after that, the business ceased to exist.  I will not let that happen to me or the organization I lead. 

When approached by the NGMR to blog about the "10 most important things to consider for the research industry going forward"...the five market research considerations that will be "hot" and the five market research considerations that will "not" in the next few years...I was quickly on board.  As an obsessive...here's my list:

What's Hot:

• Multimodal research methods are actually gaining traction - I predicted this in an online prediction site sponsored by Research Rockstar at the beginning of the year.  My prediction surfaced to the most agreed upon prediction that emerged from the exercise.  Her write-up of the prediction results are here.  I continue to believe that research modes and methods are evolving into a process where the method of collection does not matter as much as simply getting the right answer to the business question.
• Companies that expand their horizons - the historical identifiers that we've used in the market research industry are blurring.  In the past, research companies have identified themselves simply by the labels of data collection provider, full-service market research provider, end-user, and market research supplier.  Companies are breaking out of these linguistic boxes in an attempt to expand their horizons and stay viable.  Recently, some of the largest companies I've met that provide market research solutions would never title themselves as market research providers.  It allows them to work with any department, individual, or corporate structure in any organization that needs an answer to a business related question, marketing or otherwise. 
• Globalization of research process and scope - our industry may be a little slow on the uptake.  In 2005, Friedman stated that The World is Flat.  There's more to it than outsourcing phone calls to India, Costa Rica, or the Philippines.  Companies are, and will continue to establish global networks of trusted advisor organizations so that when approached about answering questions in China, Eastern Europe, the Americas, etc. they have a way to accommodate the request.  North America does not have a monopoly on smart people.  These networks can span "non-traditional" research process like analytics, coding, programming, etc. and may actually be better able to meet this need than they are able to meet the "traditional" outsourcing need associated with dialing phones into the US. 
• Growing mobile penetration - Mobile devices are here to stay.  Currently, the research industry isn't really sure what to do about it.  There are silos of companies advocating "their mobile method," but few if any have the answer for where the mobile phenomena winds up and its impact on market research.  I'd imagine that over the course of the next three years, researchers will have a better understanding of what to actually do with mobile devices and how mobile research is impacted.  
• Additional industry consolidation -  As the economy recovers, industry consolidation will resume.  One area to be especially aware of is the consolidation that will continue to expand at the access panel level.  These organizations have to find a way to avoid rapid commoditization of their product.  Acquisitions will be their vehicle to differentiation.

What's Not:

• Your grandma's market research company that hasn't changed or evolved since it was created on the kitchen table.  I'm a believer that you need to adapt or you'll cease to exist.  There are a tremendous number of aging market research companies that struggle to keep up with the rapid evolution going on in our industry.
• Somewhat related to this is the old-boys (or girls) network of market researchers.  This network of aging researchers is slowly being replaced by younger, very educated, and very technically adept Gen-Y's with different ideas about market research and how to answer business questions.  They are pushing the envelope of how to accomplish good, valid, market research using "next generation" market research methods in ways that continue to be statistically valid and reliable.
• Social Media and mobile research will become a standard part of the research process and will not see the buzz they've experienced of late.  Researchers will be better equipped to deal with these sources of information and research.  They will NOT take over the world, but will be additional tools in the researchers toolbox...meaning that face-to-face, telephone, access panels, qualitative, etc. will survive if they adapt appropriately and can blend these methods.
• Customer satisfaction research in the "traditional sense" will likely decline.  Contacting customers days after consumption, or without knowledge of recent product use, will likely give way to "in-the-moment" research conducted at the point of transaction or point of experience.
• Linearity in the research process - Order is emerging from non-linear Chaos (Chaos Theory) and being used to predict success in business and answer business questions.  The sum of two variables is often worth more than you'd think (greater than the sum of their parts).  On the other hand, an N of one is sometimes more valuable than an N of one-thousand.  It all depends on your view and the question you're trying to answer.  At the end of the day, the research industry is about answering questions.  Following step A, then step B, then C, then D, may not be as pertinent as it once was, especially if information can be gathered and questions answered from many different sources. 

I'm much more of a business evolutionist than a revolutionist.  Businesses have a greater tendency to evolve than to throw off their coats of experience (that which keeps them warm and comfortable) and change entirely.  I'm still watching for that reason to completely change, in the meantime I'm happy to evolve and adapt.  But, it does take some participant observation to know where it's headed.